by Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension

As 2025 wraps up there is still little indication of significant heifer retention for herd rebuilding, though some retention may be beginning slowly.

The July Cattle report showed the smallest beef replacement heifer inventory in the history of the report back to 1973, although no comparison to last year was possible as that report was not available last year.

The October Cattle on Feed  showed that the percentage of heifers in feedlots was unchanged from July and still above average as it has been since late 2018.

It is true that heifer slaughter is down 6.6% so far this year and is falling faster than steer slaughter, which is down 4.4% year to date. Fig. 1 shows average monthly heifer slaughter since January 1978. Average heifer slaughter peaked most recently in January 2023 and has declined 9.0% as of October 2025. Heifer slaughter is quite variable and does decrease during periods of herd expansion. However, at this point the decrease in heifer slaughter is not enough to indicate significant heifer retention.

Fig. 2 shows the ratio of steer-to-heifer slaughter during the same 49-year period. The obvious spikes in the ratio (dotted circles) correspond to herd expansions in the years 1979-1982; 1990-1996; 2004-2006; and 2014-2019. The ratio increases when heifer slaughter drops relative to steer slaughter during herd rebuilding.