by Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension

The Jan. 1, 2025, beef cow inventory was 27.86 million head, down 0.5% from the previous year. Was 2025 the smallest cow herd inventory for the current cattle cycle? It is looking more likely that it might be the low.

Herd growth this year depends on the amount of cow culling relative to the supply of bred heifers that will enter the herd during the year. Although the inventory of bred heifers was record-low, beef cow slaughter is down 16.2% for the first 21 weeks of the year — indicating a low level of cow culling that might allow for a fractional increase in the beef cow herd this year.

Where would beef cow herd growth be most likely if it is beginning? The January data showed seven of the top 10 beef cow states had beef cow inventories that were unchanged or were up slightly. Missouri had 2% more beef cows, while Texas, Oklahoma, Montana and North Dakota were up 1% year over year. Kansas and Florida had the same number of beef cows as the year prior.

It would appear a number of major beef cow states are interested in herd rebuilding.

Moreover, while the total beef replacement heifer inventory was down 1% year over year, several states had heifer inventories that were up, including Kansas, up 3%, and Oklahoma and South Dakota up 2% from the previous year. Montana, Missouri, North Dakota, Wyoming and Florida had beef replacement heifer inventories unchanged from the prior year. It would appear a number of major beef cow states are interested in herd rebuilding.

Forage conditions continue to be a limiting factor in some regions. The latest Drought Monitor (see Fig. 1) reveals the Central Plains, Northern Plains and much of the Rocky Mountain regions are still struggling with drought.