In the Cattle Markets
An analysis of the midyear ‘Cattle’ and ‘Cattle on Feed’ reports.
August 6, 2025
by Matthew Dierson, South Dakota State University
The Cattle and Cattle on Feed reports were released after the markets closed July 25. Last year, the Cattle report was cancelled for budgetary reasons. It was restored for 2025.
The trade was expecting smaller inventory totals as of July 1, generally, compared to two years ago. The expectations were consistent with the contraction that has been occurring for several years. Missing the mid-year data from last year makes some comparisons more difficult or less relevant. Regardless, the overall totals across categories are still valuable for insights into the supply situation.
The actual total of 94.2 million head was down 1% from last year and was slightly above trade expectations.
Beef cow inventory and calf crop estimates, while down, were not down as much as expected. The number of beef replacement heifers and the number of other heifers are both lower, affirming the continued contraction on the beef side, although not by much.
The cattle-on-feed total across all feedlots, at 13.0 million head, suggests small feedlots, those with less than 1,000-head capacity, have an inventory level almost unchanged from two years ago. While nothing suggests major contraction, there is also nothing to suggest any expansion.
Placements in June surprised the trade, coming in at 1.44 million head and at only 92% of last year.
The trade was expecting a tighter on-feed total. The actual, at 11.2 million head, continued the typical seasonal trend of lower inventories. Placements in June surprised the trade, coming in at 1.44 million head and at only 92% of last year. This was below the low end of trade estimates.
While feeder-cattle auction volume for June was up from a year ago, the direct sales volume was down sharply. There was no evident pattern in placement weights as the number of head placed across different classes were consistently lower than a year ago. Marketings, at 1.71 million head, were in line with expectations and slaughter volumes for June.
Some regional differences were evident. Relatively high placements offset relatively high marketings in Kansas, resulting in a higher on-feed total. Despite relatively low placements, the on-feed total in Nebraska remained relatively high. Texas had relatively low placements and marketings, resulting in a relatively low on-feed total. The continued disruption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico could be showing up there.
The quarterly heifer mix on feed, the ratio of heifers to all cattle on feed, was 38.1% as of July 1, 2025. The mix has been hovering around 39% for several years. The mix bottomed out at around 31% percent in mid-2015 during the last cattle expansion. The mix had been getting lower, especially last quarter when it reached 37.6%. An increase from April 1 to July 1 is consistent over time. The mix is the smallest it has been on July 1 since 2019 and would be the slightest indication that some expansion is being considered.
Editor’s note: Matthew Diersen is a risk and business management specialist in the Ness School of Management & Economics at South Dakota State University. This article is reprinted with permission from the Livestock Marketing Information Center website www.lmic.info.
Angus Beef Bulletin EXTRA, Vol. 17, No. 8-A
Topics: Industry News , Marketing , News
Publication: Angus Beef Bulletin
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