The Link
The paradox of simplicity in a complex industry.
October 7, 2025
Making decisions in the cattle industry is rarely simple. We operate within extremely complex systems filled with unknowns. Markets and Mother Nature are both unpredictable and largely beyond our control. Add genetics to the mix and we face countless cause-and-effect relationships, antagonisms and interdependencies that must be understood. Our challenge is to optimize many factors while constantly adjusting to ever-evolving targets.
In essence, effective simplicity depends on having a model complex enough to guide sound decisions.
The irony of this complexity is that it often drives us to seek simplicity. We pick a direction and go full steam ahead. Experience has taught us that the marketplace rewards action and differentiation, so this instinct is understandable. The downside, however, is that once we commit to a path, we can become myopic — slow to recognize when we need to adjust. When our chosen “simple” path doesn’t capture enough of the underlying complexity, it can create new problems along the way.
Bridging the gap between simplicity, complexity
This paradox explains both the appeal and the pitfalls of one-trait selection and long-held traditions. Economic indexes such as grid value ($G), beef value ($B) and maternal weaned calf value ($M) were developed to bridge the gap between simplicity and complexity — helping us make balanced, data-driven decisions while accounting for multiple traits, their relationships and economic consequences. By combining genetics with economics, these indexes allow us to simplify without oversimplifying.
In essence, effective simplicity depends on having a model complex enough to guide sound decisions. It’s about using the right metrics — those that not only inform decisions, but also measure progress and allow for timely course corrections.
While every operation is unique, most genetic selection decisions in our industry tend to fall into six major buckets: efficiency, quality, maternal traits, terminal traits, market differentiation and convenience/lifestyle. Naturally, this creates healthy debate and competition. The danger lies in viewing any one of these areas in isolation.
Take efficiency, for example. Efficiency alone is a poor metric. It must be evaluated alongside quality to have meaning. Knowing a steer converts at 5-to-1 and grades Select tells me very little compared to one that converts 5.3-to-1 and grades Prime. Efficiency should always be measured relative to a defined end point — feed efficiency to a target marbling score, or days on feed to reach a specific weight.
The same logic applies to cost-of-production metrics: A cow that costs $800 per year to maintain may not be more profitable than one costing $900 raising a calf that generates significantly greater market value. Likewise, topping the video sale isn’t necessarily a win if it comes at the expense of replacement females or a reduced calf crop.
Start with a goal
That’s why every successful breeding and marketing program begins with clear breeding objectives — goals based on the best available information about current and future industry targets. From there, strategies can be refined to align with the unique resources, environment and management style of each operation.
Times are good right now, but ranching will never be easy. It will always demand resilience, adaptability and vision.
It’s not wrong to focus on specific priorities like quality, efficiency or convenience. However, in the real world, none of these elements exists independently. Competing goals are inevitable in a complex system. The key is to manage those trade-offs intentionally and creatively — often by deciding not only what to do, but also what not to do. True simplicity comes not from ignoring complexity, but from clarifying priorities and aligning actions toward a well-defined purpose.
Times are good right now, but ranching will never be easy. It will always demand resilience, adaptability and vision. Ranchers represent a small subset of the population because, despite all its rewards, this way of life is undeniably hard. Yet every meaningful innovation in our industry has stemmed from someone’s refusal to accept the world as it was.
Progress — both in ranching and in life — has always been driven by individuals with what might be called irrational dedication. That same spirit will continue to propel our industry forward, increasing both its profitability and its sustainability. Our hope is that our Commercial Programs Department will continue to be a partner in that journey as we continue our mission of rewarding commercial producers for the investment they have made in their product with the same level of dedication.
Editor’s note: Troy Marshall is director of commercial industry relations for the American Angus Association.
Angus Beef Bulletin EXTRA, Vol. 17, No. 10-A
Topics: Feeder-Calf Marketing Guide , Marketing , EPDs , Genetics , Selection
Publication: Angus Beef Bulletin
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