Angus Stakes
Poised to grow — if conditions permit.
January 1, 2024
With the beef cow inventory at its lowest level since the 1960s and calf prices near all-time highs, signals point to expansion of the national cow herd. But cattlemen aren’t yet following those signals. Drought, uneasiness due to global unrest and macroeconomics, input costs, and the bird in the hand of $1,500 weaned heifer calves as feeder calves have put the brakes on growth.
According to CattleFax Analyst Patrick Linnell, the national cow herd inventory at the start of 2023 was a little more than 28.9 million head, 1.06 million fewer cows than the year before. A record culling rate of 13.4% in 2022 resulted in the lowest beef cow inventory in 61 years.
Predictions are, it’s going lower. While the pace of beef cow slaughter has slowed, Linnell says the 2023 culling rate is expected to be 11.2%, ending in an expected beef cow herd of 28.3 million to begin 2024. The culling rate would need to drop to 9%-10% for herd numbers to stabilize, he says.
Heifer numbers as a percent of the fed-cattle mix indicate cattlemen haven’t yet started to retain heifers to grow the herd. And some analysts are predicting it will be 2025 and possibly 2026 before herd numbers start to increase. Others looking at the average age of farm and ranch owners and current land prices wonder if we are headed toward a large structure change in the beef industry.
That’s why we asked the questions
To get a better grasp of what cattlemen are planning to do, Angus Media teamed with CattleFax to ask cow-calf and feedlot operations about their future intentions and feelings toward Angus genetics. Angus Media President Clay Zwilling presented the first official reveal of the results — summarized in the Industry Insights report — during an Angus University session at the 2023 Angus Convention in Orlando, Fla. (see page 120).
Fig. 1: Herd size intentions for next three years
According to survey responses, most cow-calf producers are planning to maintain or expand their herds within the next three years (see Fig. 1). In fact, one in five herds is planning to increase by 20% or more. Compound that with the fact a greater percentage of the extremely large herds (those with 1,000 or more cows) are planning to expand, and herd numbers are poised to grow.
While 13% of respondents did say they would downsize, only 2% indicated they were planning to liquidate their herd.
There were regional differences. For example, a greater proportion of ranchers in the Southeast indicated they were planning to downsize (17%) or liquidate (3%). On the other hand, 50% of ranchers in the West were planning to increase herd size.
Factors outside the beef industry may influence how soon cattlemen will be able to act upon their intentions. Drought, higher open rates and dwindling forage supplies certainly forced more culling than maybe planned in 2023. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties have added to the hesitation.
But, it will rain, and as Troy Marshall points out in his “Market Closeout” commentary on page 90, psychological factors (fears and greed) may dominate the market short term; but, in the long term, underlying market fundamentals will play out.
Rebuild right
That said, with a smaller herd to build from and more expensive heifer development, it is more important now than ever to rebuild right — with the right genetics managed with the right health and nutrition protocols.
As herd size, forage availability and marketing opportunity differ from one herd to the next, there is no one plan that fits all situations, though there are some common denominators. We’ve filled this issue with articles to help “Ready the Replacements.” You can find more information to supplement the theme in our Angus Beef Bulletin EXTRA e-newsletter and our Angus At Work podcast.
One of my favorites is the American Angus Association’s announcement that the expected progeny difference (EPD) for functional longevity (FL) has entered the research phase (see page 68). To rebuild the herd, we’ll have to count on those cows staying in the herd longer. Ask your seedstock supplier if they are enrolled in inventory reporting and if they have access to the research FL EPDs on their cow herd.
Featured in the January 2024 Angus Beef Bulletin
Topics: News , Industry Insights , Industry News , Management
Publication: Angus Beef Bulletin
Issue: January 2024
Related Content
Current Angus Beef Bulletin
The April issue has a “Focus On Females,” including a special advertising section devoted to herds intent on providing the female foundation.
