When agricultural market news services discuss cattle prices, they refer to “according to USDA…” However, there are several USDA agencies that publish important livestock production and marketing information. 

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provides important supply-related information including the semi-annual CATTLE inventory reports published in January and July. Current and past reports are available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/h702q636h.

The January CATTLE report provides a more detailed state-by-state breakdown. The July report only provides total U.S. cattle inventory numbers.
The latest CATTLE report released July 24 reported the July 1 U.S. beef cow herd at 28.45 million head, down 1% from last year. That was the eighth straight year of liquidation from the 2018 cyclical peak of 32.3 million head.

NASS also publishes a monthly Cattle on Feed report available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/m326m174z.The Aug. 21 report showed cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market up 1.8% from a year ago. July placements on feed were down 11% and cattle marketed were down 7.4%. The increased cattle on feed were due to slow feedlot turnover caused by more days on feed, which contributed to higher carcass weights.

The USDA Office of Chief Economist (OCE) publishes a monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) available at: www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.

The WASDE provides annual forecasts for supply, use including exports, and prices for major crops, oilseeds, and livestock. 

The August WASDE released Aug. 12 forecast 2026 beef production at 25.04 billion pounds (lb.), down from 26.07 billion lb. last year. 2027 beef production is forecast to increase slightly to 25.05 billion lb. due to higher carcass weights. 2026 beef exports are projected at 2,333 million lb.

2026 annual fed-steer prices are projected at a record $245.35 per hundredweight (cwt.), up from last year’s $224.37. 2027 fed-steer prices are forecast to continue the cyclical increase at $249.

The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) publishes a monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook publication available at: 
www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=102167

The report provides in-depth analyses of fundamental supply and demand factors affecting the U.S. and international markets for beef, pork, lamb, poultry and dairy products. Fed-steer price projections from the WASDE are analyzed in detail. 

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) publishes a quarterly (January, April, July, October) Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular available at: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade

The circular analyzes the current situation among the major players in the world beef, pork, and chicken trade. The United States is the leading producer and consumer of beef in the world, and the third leading exporter only behind Brazil and Australia. 

ERS and FAS jointly publish monthly U.S. livestock and meat trade data by country available at: www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-and-meat-international-trade-data

The data confirm 2026 beef exports are declining and imports are increasing due to shorter beef supplies and record high prices.

The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) publishes daily, weekly, and monthly cattle and beef cash market reports available at:
www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain#Cattle

Fed-cattle prices for different regions and many feeder cattle auction market prices are reported.

The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) publishes Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) coverage prices, rates and ending values at: www.rma.usda.gov/tools-reports/livestock-reports-lrp-lgm

LRP insurance is a valuable price risk management tool when prices are volatile and uncertainty exists.

So, what does USDA say? The cyclically declining beef cow herd has supported cattle prices at record high levels. But many dynamic, fundamental supply-and-demand factors are causing enough uncertainty to cause cattle futures and cash markets to be volatile. 

Editor’s note: Tim Petry is a livestock marketing economist with the North Dakota State University Extension Service.