All market classes of beef cattle were record high throughout 2025. That trend has continued in 2026 supported by short cattle supplies resulting from seven years (2019-2025) of beef cow liquidation and good beef demand.

Many supply and demand fundamentals affect cattle prices.

The three most important factors to watch for fall calf prices are potential calf supplies, corn prices, and fed cattle prices, especially the distant live cattle futures prices for contract months when the calves will ultimately reach slaughter weight.

The 2025 U.S. calf crop (includes beef and dairy calves) at 32.9 million head declined for seven years, and was the lowest for decades. The 2026 calf crop will be lower again, because the Jan. 1 beef cow herd was down 149,500 head.

The first USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) 2026 calf crop estimate will be made in the July “Cattle” inventory report to be released on July 24 at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/h702q636h.

Fall calf supplies may continue to be affected by the outbreak of New World screwworm (NWS), now detected in the southern United States. The Mexican border has been closed to the importation of cattle since May 2025.  During the fall calf marketing season, Mexican calf imports averaged about 25,000 head per week to graze winter wheat in the Southern Plains. 

The potential for more heifer calves to be retained for breeding could further reduce calf supplies.

Fed and feeder cattle prices, along with futures market prices, continue to be near record highs.

Demand for high-quality beef has remained strong despite record-high beef prices. The Choice boxed beef cutout value continues to set weekly higs buoyed by strong, seasonal demand.

USDA predicts fed steers to average $250 per hundredweight (cwt.) in 2026 and $254 per cwt. in 2027.

The 2025 national average corn price received by farmers declined from $4.24 per bushel (bu.) in 2024 to $4.15 per bu. in 2025, with the record 17 billion bushel corn crop.

A 10 cent-per-bu. change in corn prices usually results in a $1-per-cwt. change in fall calf prices in the opposite direction. So, declining corn prices were supportive to record-high calf prices.

Looking ahead to the potential 2026 corn crop, USDA is predicting fewer planted corn acres in 2026. 

The June 11 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report estimated the 2026 corn price at $4.40 per bu.

The Western Corn Belt is experiencing dry conditions, particularly in South Dakota and Nebraska. 

Corn crop development, final planted acres and expected yield information, along with a dynamic corn export market, may cause significant corn price volatility this summer.

2025 fall calf prices were supported at record high and seasonally high levels. Usually, seasonal price lows occur in the fall due to the large seasonal marketing of calves.

Price support came from record-high fed cattle prices, a smaller calf crop, the Mexican border closed to cattle imports, increased replacement heifer retention, good winter wheat grazing conditions, lower corn prices stimulating Corn Belt feedlot demand, and increased Canadian demand for calves.

A word of caution is that some fundamentals may not be as positive this fall, and a more normal lower seasonal price pattern could occur.

The declining beef cow herd and calf crops will mean fewer cattle marketed and, potentially, declining beef production in 2026. That will be supportive to fall calf prices.

However, price volatility and risk will likely continue. Drought conditions linger in some areas, the potential size of the 2026 corn crop is unknown, domestic and export beef demand face challenges, and the effects of geo-political, tariff, and trade issues are dynamic and uncertain.