Fed and feeder cattle prices along with futures market prices continue to set record highs.

Demand for high-quality beef has remained strong despite record high beef prices. The choice boxed beef cutout value also continues to set weekly highs buoyed by strong, seasonal demand.

Another indication of strong demand is that beef production in the first quarter was nearly the same as last year with higher carcass weights.
USDA predicts fed steers to average $214 per hundredweight (cwt.) in 2025 and $223/cwt. in 2026.

The 2024 national average corn price received by farmers declined from $4.55 per bushel (bu.) in 2023 to $4.35/bu. in 2024. 

A 10 cent/bu. change in corn prices usually results in a $1/cwt. change in fall calf prices in the opposite direction. So, declining corn prices were supportive to record high calf prices.

Looking ahead to the potential 2025 corn crop, NASS released the “Prospective Plantings” report on March 31, 2025. 

The report indicated that U.S. corn producers intend to plant 95.3 million corn acres in 2025, up 4.7 million acres from last year. 

The May 12 USDA “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report, USDA’s first estimate of 2025 corn production and expected price, estimated the 2025 corn price at $4.20/bu. down 15 cents from 2024 (www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde). A potential record corn crop with lower corn prices would be supportive to fall calf prices.

The Western Corn Belt is experiencing dry conditions, particularly in South Dakota and Nebraska. 

Corn planting progress, final planted acres, crop development and expected yield information, along with a dynamic corn export market may cause significant corn price volatility this spring and summer.

The declining beef cow herd and calf crops will mean fewer cattle marketed and potentially declining beef production in 2025. That will be supportive to fall calf prices.

However, price volatility and risk will likely continue. Drought conditions linger in some areas, the potential size of the 2025 corn crop is unknown; domestic and export beef demand face challenges; and the impact of geo-political, tariff, and trade issues are dynamic and uncertain.