The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the much-anticipated annual Cattle inventory report Jan. 30, 2026. It is available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/h702q636h.

There were no surprises in the report as most cattle market observers expected both the beef cow inventory and beef replacement heifer categories to be either up or down slightly from last year.

U.S. beef cow numbers Jan. 1, 2026, at 27.6 million head were down 284,800 head or 1% from the 27.9 million head Jan. 1, 2025. The Jan. 1, 2026, U.S. beef replacement heifer inventory at 4.71 million head increased 41,700 head or 1% more than the 4.67 million head in 2025.

The Jan. 1, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 beef cow numbers were all below the 28.96 million beef cows at the last cyclical low in 2014, which saw the previous record high cattle prices. Last year marked the seventh straight year of U.S. beef cow herd cyclical liquidation. Numbers peaked Jan. 1, 2019, at 31.64 million head, so the seven-year decline was about four million head or 12.8%.

The top 10 beef cow states in order of importance are Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, Kansas, North Dakota, Florida and Kentucky; which account for 57% of the U.S. beef cow herd. 

Six of those states including Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Montana, North Dakota and Florida saw increases in beef cow numbers during 2024, indicating possible interest then in beef herd restocking where forage conditions allowed. However, during 2025 seven of the top 10 states recorded declines in beef cow numbers, with only North Dakota, Oklahoma and Florida increasing. 

North Dakota led the nation in expansion during 2025, where beef cow numbers increased another 21,000 head following a 10,000-head increase during 2024. Other 2025 notable increases in beef cow numbers occurred in Colorado and Minnesota, where numbers increased 15,000 head; with California, Washington and Pennsylvania up 10,000 head; and Florida and Oklahoma each jumping 7,000 head.

Drought conditions that started in 2020 in important cow-calf regions have continued at moderate to severe levels since and have been the major reason for forced beef cow liquidation. However, other factors contributing to the lack of herd rebuilding include increasing production costs, labor shortages, market price uncertainty, record high replacement heifer prices and remembering the abrupt price decline after the last cyclical price high in 2014-15.

The 2026 U.S. beef replacement heifer inventory did increase 1% and was the first increase in replacement heifers since the 6.36-million-head peak in 2017. That may signal possible initial interest in herd rebuilding.

However, the 4.67 million beef replacements Jan. 1, 2026, were below the 5.56 million head and 6.1 million head available at the last beef cow herd cyclical low in 2014 and herd rebuilding in 2015.

The beef replacement heifer inventory includes both the heifer calves held for replacement as well as the bred heifers expected to calve in 2026. The number of bred heifers expected to calve was 2.96 million, up 1.4% from last year.

The 2025 calf crop was down 630,000 head at 32.9 million head, marking the seventh consecutive year of calf crop declines since the 36.3-million-head cyclical high in 2018.

The declining beef cow herd and calf crop will mean fewer cattle marketed and likely declining beef production in 2026. That will be supportive to cattle prices.

Current cattle prices are at record high levels and are expected remain cyclically high. However, seasonal price patterns do exist for each market class of cattle, so price declines during the year are still likely to occur.

Price volatility and risk will likely continue. Drought conditions linger, the potential size of the 2026 corn crop is unknown, government policy decisions are affecting beef imports and exports, domestic and export beef demand face challenges, and geo-political issues remain uncertain.  

Editor’s note: Tim Petry is a livestock marketing economist with the North Dakota State University Extension Service.