This last year was certainly a record year for beef cattle prices. They have been increasing cyclically since the last cyclical low in 2020, buoyed by six years of declining beef cow numbers. Carcass weights increased 20-30 pounds (lb.), which amounted to the equivalent of slaughtering another million head of fed steers and heifers. It was a breakout year for cattle prices when prices averaged above 2024 at record high levels.

Fed-steer prices started 2025 at a record high $200 per hundredweight (cwt.), $25 higher than the $175 per cwt. in 2024. Prices generally increased to reach a seasonal peak of $245 per cwt. in mid-August, about $60 per cwt. higher than the previous year. Prices then declined to a low of $212 in mid-November, but rebounded seasonally to $228 per cwt. in December. Prices were supported by strong domestic and export demand and shorter beef supplies. 2025 beef production declined almost 4% from 27 billion lb. to 26 billion lb.

The top U.S. beef customers have been Japan, South Korea, China, Mexico and Canada. Beef export demand remained strong to all customers except China. China’s retaliatory beef tariffs, and more importantly its decision to not approve U.S. beef plants for imports into China, led to a decline in total beef exports from 3 billion lb. in 2024 to 2.6 billion lb.

Fed-steer prices averaged $224 per cwt., compared to $187 per cwt. in 2024. Five-hundred and fifty to 600-lb. steer calf prices in North Dakota started 2025 at an average $335 per cwt., $40/cwt. higher than 2024. Keep in mind this is an average price, and the range in prices for the same weight and grade of calves at the same market can be wide due to the many factors that affect prices.

Prices continued to increase at a record high pace until Oct. 16, when they reached above $480 per cwt. Prices were counter-seasonally higher in early October due to several price-supportive factors.

A continuation of the U.S. border closure to the importation of Mexican cattle, which began May 11 due to New World screwworm, meant 25,000 to 30,000 fewer feeder cattle entering the United States each week.

Winter wheat grazing conditions in the Southern Plains with adequate moisture were very good. That increased demand for calves, especially since none were coming from Mexico. Increased replacement heifer retention due to interest in beef herd rebuilding further reduced market supplies. 

The record 16.75-billion-bushels corn crop caused smaller Corn Belt feedlots to be aggressive buyers of calves to feed. Canadian buyers were also active bidders for Northern Plains calves. Calf prices retreated seasonally during the heavy fall marketing season, but still ended the year at an average $449 per cwt., $114 higher than in 2024.

Seven-hundred and fifty to 800-lb. feeder steers in North Dakota started 2025 at $277 per cwt. and continued to increase at record levels until Oct. 16, when they reached a record $382 per cwt. Higher prices occurred for the same fundamental reasons as the calf price increase. Prices then declined seasonally to finish the year at $357 per cwt., which was a record for that time and more than $80 per cwt. higher than the previous year.

Beef cull-cow prices followed the same increasing trajectory at record levels as fed and feeder cattle. Prices were supported by smaller supplies  and beef cow slaughter declining 18% year over year. 

The new year 

The tight supply and strong demand fundamentals that occurred in 2025 will still be in play in 2026. USDA is projecting beef production to decline to 25.72 billion lb. There will likely continue to be short supplies of all market classes of cattle and beef. 

As 2026 progresses, many questions arise. Some of the 2025 price-supportive factors may not be supportive in 2026. 

Government policy decisions are affecting beef imports and exports, which cause volatile price fluctuations. Price volatility is expected to continue, so price risk management strategies should be considered.  

Editor’s note: Tim Petry is a livestock marketing economist with the North Dakota State University Extension Service.