2024 marked the sixth straight year of U.S. beef cow herd cyclical liquidation. U.S. beef cow numbers Jan. 1, 2025, at 27.86 million head, were down from the 28.01 million head Jan. 1, 2024. The 2023, 2024 and 2025 numbers were all below the 28.96 million beef cows at the last cyclical low in 2014, which saw the previous record-high cattle prices.

Cyclical numbers peaked Jan. 1, 2019, at 31.64 million head, so the six-year decline was about 3.78 million head or 12%.

However, another important determinant of cattle prices is beef demand, which is more difficult to quantify than supply, especially in the short run. USDA reports cattle and beef supply fundamentals daily, weekly and monthly. 

Beef demand has been stronger than some expected. In spite of the beef cow herd declining, U.S. beef production reached an all-time record high of 28.36 billion pounds (lb.) in 2022, buoyed by drought-forced beef cow liquidation. 2023 and 2024 beef production declined to 27 billion lb. with fewer cattle available but was still historically high.

Cattle prices have increased every year since the last cyclical low in 2020 and reached record levels in 2023 despite the high beef production levels. 2025 will be the third straight year for record prices. It is interesting to note beef production in 2014, the last cyclical price high, was 24.3 billion lb. compared to 27 billion lb. in 2024.

Beef demand includes both domestic and export demand, and each have been strong. Domestic beef demand has been resilient despite record beef prices and steady competing pork and chicken retail prices. In June, the all-fresh retail beef price reached an all-time record $8.63 per lb. Retail pork prices have held steady, averaging $4.90 per lb. The composite broiler-chicken retail price has been tracking in the mid to low $2.00-per-lb. area for several months.

There are likely a number of reasons why beef demand has remained strong. Meat demand in general has been positively affected by GLP-1, high-protein and ketogenic diets. In the case of high-priced beef cuts such as steaks, there seems to be a movement away from restaurant consumption to at-home consumption, where consumers can pay lower prices that fit their budget and still continue to enjoy the high-quality cuts. 

The weekly Choice boxed beef cutout value — a good indicator of beef demand — surged to record highs of more than $390 per hundredweight (cwt.) in midsummer, buoyed by very strong seasonal holiday demand. Wholesale ribeye, strip loin and full tender prices all soared to record highs. The high cutout value supported fed-cattle prices to a record high of $239 in midsummer.

Not only was high-quality beef demand exceptional the first half of the year, but consumers’ appetite for ground beef has also been strong. Hamburger competes pricewise with competing pork and chicken.

Prices for 90% lean trimmings, which are the backbone of ground beef markets, have also surged to record levels. Seasonal demand for hamburger pushed wholesale 90% lean to a record over $400 per cwt. in midsummer.

That supported the cull-cow market at record highs as well.

Until recently, beef export demand has been strong as well, supported by top beef export destinations South Korea, Japan, China, Mexico and Canada. The 2024 U.S. beef and byproduct export value at $10.45 billion was higher than 2023 with the same volume, but higher prices.

The 2025 beef export value was higher again through March, but has declined with tariff negotiations continuing to evolve with major export markets.

The Choice boxed-beef cutout value and fed-cattle prices usually decline seasonally in the second half of the year. That is expected again this year.

USDA’s current projections are for fed-steer prices to average $221 per cwt. in 2025 and $228 per cwt. in 2026, but will depend on continuing strong beef demand.