Our lives regularly experience updates — much like your phone updates to function more efficiently, you update your home's appliances or you update your wardrobe when the seasons change. Each year, Angus Genetics Inc. (AGI) facilitates an annual update to economic assumptions, genomic scores and more.
On Friday, June 2, annual updates to economic assumptions and genomic scores as well as bi-annual updates to main and supplemental sire listings, EPD averages and percentile ranks will go into effect.
Annual Economic Assumption Update:
Each year, costs and revenue prices underlying the bio-economic model, which drive the Association’s $Values, are updated using data provided by CattleFax. This update is based on a seven-year rolling average to account for the ebbs and flows of input costs, cattle markets and other related economic influences. The 2023 economic assumptions are based on prices recorded from 2016 to 2022. This time horizon of seven years is employed to mimic the relative costs and revenues that would take place in the average cattle cycle.
This year’s biggest changes are a result of weaned calf sale price and ration cost. In May 2022, the economic assumptions were based on average prices from 2015-2021, which included a weaned calf price of $172/cwt for steer calves and $158/cwt for heifer calves. In the 2023 update, the exchange of 2015 with 2022 lowered the average calf price, and lands the 7-year rolling average at $167/cwt for steer calves and $152/cwt for heifer calves. Additionally, ration cost and days on feed continued to climb. Ration costs increased from $178 to $199 per ton, while time on feed remained steady 246 days for calf-feds and increased slightly from 170 to 171 days on feed for yearling animals. The changes in calf price and ration cost are reflected in the outcome of the maternal weaned calf value ($M) where calf price is the major revenue driver. Ration costs increased in both the cow/calf and feeding sectors. Even though the uptick in ration costs decreased profitability in the feedlot value ($F) a slight increase in quality premiums inside grid value ($G) resulted in no average change in beef value ($B) in the overall population.
Overall, the above updates did not result in substantial changes to individual $Values. Updates to economic assumptions resulted in correlations above 0.99. Even with these extremely high correlations, some individual animals can change. The largest decrease in $M, $B and $C across the 4,177 current sires, or bulls who have registered at least one progeny in the last two years, were -$6, -$7 and -$14, respectively. Overall, breeders can expect sires to rank very similarly when the 2023 assumptions are implemented. For more information on $Values, click here.
Annual Update Genomic Scores:
While GE-EPDs update on a weekly basis, genomic scores are only updated once a year. The update includes a larger reference population (n= 1,384,603), which genomic scores are ranked against.
Because genomic scores are a by-product of the genetic evaluation, the updates to these genomic scores will not affect the GE-EPDs themselves. It is always preferable to use GE-EPDs when making selection decisions. To learn more about GE-EPDs, click here.
Bi-Annual Update to EPD Averages & Percentile Ranks, Main/Supplemental Sires:
This update will also mark the 2023 Fall Sire Evaluation Report which will update the main and supplemental sire listings as well as EPD averages and percentile ranks for non-parent bulls and females and current sires and current dams.
In a recent AJ Daily article, Kelli Retallick-Riley, AGI president, sat down with Angus Media’s Miranda Reiman to give an in-depth look at what the 2023 update entails. To listen, visit: www.angusjournal.net/post/updates-to-dollar-value-indexes.